What chips are needed in the automotive market? How scarce is it?
According to DIGITIMES Research, a market research organization, the shortage of cores in the automotive industry has gradually improved since the fourth quarter of 2022. Except for silicon-based power devices IGBT and MCU, power management chips, CMOS image sensors, embedded multimedia cards, and display drivers are still in short supply. The lead time of ICs has gradually been loosened. As the backlog of orders of OEMs is gradually eliminated, it is estimated that the lead time of most automotive chips will continue to shorten in 2023.
01. MCU continues to be in short supply
According to estimates by semiconductor manufacturers, a car needs 20-30 MCUs, and future luxury models may require as many as 100 MCUs, higher than the previously estimated 70. This will result in a larger automotive MCU market. Infineon, a major global automotive MCU manufacturer, also stated at the financial report meeting in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 that due to the limited increase in the supply of mature manufacturing processes, the company's automotive MCU business is expected to grow by 2.5 times in the next few years.
For a long time, nearly 90% of the automotive MCU market has been concentrated in the six major manufacturers including Infineon, NXP, Microchip, Renesas, ST, and Texas Instruments, and the localization rate is far below 5%.
However, in the first quarter of this year, major chip giants expressed that the supply of automotive MCUs continued to be tight. Among #TI products, the supply of MCUs headed by MSP is still tight, and the supply of DSPs headed by TMS320 is tight. The #NXP automotive MCU series FSx and MCFx series are still tight and start at 52 weeks; Freescale's MK series delivery period is maintained at 45-50 weeks, which has eased compared to 2022; the supply of the S9x series of 16-bit MCUs is tight, and the spot price is very high. Infineon's high-end automotive MCUs (starting with SAK) have been in short supply because they cannot be replaced. For example, SAK-TC277TP-64F200N and SAK-TC222S-16F133F AC are all expensive compared to normal prices.
02. IGBT is priced but not in stock
Recently, many market participants have reported that due to the mismatch between demand and production capacity, the existing production capacity of IGBTs has basically been sold out. Describe the out-of-stock situation. According to media reports, the IGBT shortage problem will be difficult to solve until at least mid-2024. Earlier news also pointed out that some manufacturers' IGBT production line foundry prices rose by 10%. With the large increase in the amount required for automotive and industrial applications, the expansion of production capacity is slow, and customer certification takes time. In addition, Tesla released the news of a 75% reduction in silicon carbide consumption, which makes IGBT, which may become one of the alternatives, even more sought after.
The IGBT market is still mainly monopolized by foreign companies. The top five global IGBT players are #Infineon, #Mitsubishi, #Fuji Electric, ON Semiconductor, and #Semikron. Among them, Infineon has a relatively large leading edge in each market segment. Even STAR #Semiconductor, the largest in China, has a low global market share.
According to the 2023 semiconductor product Q1 delivery data released by the component distributor Future Electronics, the current delivery period of IGBT products and related accessories of mainstream power device manufacturers such as #Infineon, #IXYS, ON Semiconductor, and #ST is relatively long— — Hovering around 50 weeks, up to 54 weeks, more than a year, the delivery time of MOSFET is also similar, and the delivery time is in the long cycle area, which is basically the same as the core shortage period of the previous two years.
In addition to MCU and IGBT, which have seen amazing growth, display driver ICs, automotive chips, and wafer foundry production capacity are hard to come by. International MCU manufacturers are implementing the "Fab-light" (light fab) strategy, and the delivery time of automotive chips has been extended again and again.
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