Nvidia will surpass Intel and Samsung to rank first in 2023

 

【Lansheng Technology Information】Nvidia could become the largest semiconductor company in 2023. Semiconductor intelligence estimates that Nvidia’s total revenue in 2023 will be approximately $52.9 billion, surpassing Intel, which previously ranked first. Nvidia's 2023 revenue will be nearly double its 2022 revenue, driven by the strength of its artificial intelligence processors. Intel has been the top semiconductor company for most of the past year—except for 2017, 2018, and 2021, when the top spot was Samsung.

Despite the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry and the proliferation of startups, the top 10 companies in 2023 have all been in business for at least 30 years. Nvidia is the youngest, only 30 years old. No. 4 Broadcom is the result of Avago Technologies' acquisition of Broadcom Corporation in 2015, however, the original Broadcom was founded 32 years ago. Avago is a spin-off of Hewlett-Packard, which entered the semiconductor business 52 years ago.

The 38-year-old Qualcomm has grown to fifth place mainly through mobile phone IC and licensing revenue, and the tenth-ranked STMicroelectronics was founded in 1987 by the merger of Italy's SGS Microelettronica and France's Thomson Semiconducteurs. Both SGS and Thomson have semiconductor businesses that date back to the 1970s.

About 70 years ago, two of the first ten companies were industry pioneers. Texas Instruments was founded in 1930 and entered the semiconductor business in 1954. Infineon Technologies was originally part of Siemens AG, which was founded in 1847. Siemens began producing semiconductor products in 1953 and Infineon was spun off as an independent company in 1999.

Two South Korean companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, have more than 40 years of experience in semiconductor sales. After American and Japanese companies abandoned the memory business, Korean companies began to dominate the storage business. SK Hynix began manufacturing semiconductor products in 1983 as Hyundai Electronics, and Hyundai merged with LG Semiconductor in 1999 to form Hynix, which later became SK Hynix. Intel was founded 55 years ago, initially selling memory devices. AMD began producing logic ICs 54 years ago, and today the two companies primarily sell CPUs and together account for more than 90 percent of the computer CPU market.

The relative stability of the top semiconductor companies can be seen by comparing the top ten in 2023 to 1984, 39 years ago, the year SI leaders began conducting semiconductor market analysis. Of the top ten semiconductor companies in 1984, most are still in business today in one form or another. TI was ranked number one in 1984. Since then, TI has narrowed its scope and become more focused, becoming an analog company. chip company. No. 2 Motorola spun off its independent business in 1999 into ON Semiconductor, now an $8 billion company that acquired industry pioneer Fairchild Semiconductor in 2016. Motorola spun off its IC business into Freescale Semiconductor in 2004, and NXP Semiconductors spun off from No. 7 Philips in 2006. Freescale merged with NXP in 2015. NXP is currently a $13 billion company. National Semiconductor, ranked fifth, was acquired by TI in 2011. Intel and AMD were ranked seventh and eighth respectively in 1984, and they will be ranked second and sixth in 2023.

The relative stability of the semiconductor industry is reflected in the market share of the top ten companies in 1984 and 2023. In 1984, TI had a 9.3% share, and by 2023, Nvidia will have about 10.6%. In 1984, the top ten companies had a combined market share of 63%, and in 2023, it was about 62%. While the top companies have remained relatively stable, the industry has grown from $26 billion in 1984 to more than $500 billion in 2023, an almost 20-fold increase.

An important trend since the 1980s has been the rise of fabless semiconductor companies. In 1984, all the top companies had their own fabs, and by 2023, three of the top ten (Nvidia, Broadcom, and Qualcomm) are fabless companies. AMD became fabless in 2008 by spinning off its fabs into what is now GlobalFoundries. Intel, TI, Infineon and STMicroelectronics all use outside foundries to provide some semiconductor manufacturing. The rise of fabless companies is due to the establishment of TSMC, a large-scale wafer foundry in 1987. TSMC currently has more than 50% of the market share. Other important wafer foundries are Samsung Electronics, GlobalFoundries, UMC and SMIC.

According to TrendForce statistics, the revenue of the world's top ten IC design companies in the second quarter of 2023 reached US$38.1 billion, a quarterly increase of 12.5%. It is expected to hit a new high in the third quarter. Nvidia's single-quarter revenue overtook Qualcomm and Qualcomm in a corner. Broadcom has become the global leader in IC design.

NVIDIA's second-quarter revenue reached US$11.33 billion, a quarterly increase of 68.3%, surpassing Qualcomm and Broadcom in one fell swoop, becoming the world's leading IC design company for the first time. Nvidia benefited from global CSPs (cloud service providers), Internet companies and enterprise generative AI, and large-scale language model import application demand, driving data center revenue to increase by as much as 105% quarterly in the second quarter, and its two businesses, gaming and professional visualization, Revenue also continues to grow.

In terms of Taiwanese IC design factories, MediaTek has experienced inventory corrections for several quarters. The inventory levels of some components such as TV SoC and WiFi have become healthier. In addition, urgent orders for TVs have appeared, and mobile phones, smart terminal platforms, power management IC and other platform-related products have been released. The replenishment of goods and inventory has also started gradually, driving the second quarter revenue to grow to 3.2 billion US dollars, still holding on to the fifth largest IC design company in the world.

Novatek mainly benefited from customers' replenishment of TV-related inventory and mass production and shipment of new products (such as OLED DDI), while Realtek benefited from the supply chain's replenishment of PC/NB-related IC inventory, with quarterly growth of 24.7% and 32.6% respectively. Currently, the global The rankings are seventh and eighth respectively. However, as there are no signs of a comprehensive recovery in overall terminal sales and insufficient support for inventory replenishment, growth momentum in the second half of the year will be suppressed.

Looking forward to the third quarter, the inventory levels of major IC design manufacturers have improved significantly compared with the first half of the year. However, due to the weak demand performance of most terminals, the outlook for the second half of the year tends to be conservative. However, driven by AI demand, TrendForce expects that the world's top ten IC design revenue will continue to have double-digit quarterly growth in the third quarter, and output value is expected to hit a new high.

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